“The pandemic we’ve seen, with this exponential growth of the infection, is going to end and hopefully soon,” says Dr. Edgar Sanchez, MD, an infectious disease physician at Orlando Health Medical Group. “However, COVID-19 infections will be with us forever, just like the flu.” A recent paper published in the British Medical Journal Global Health suggests COVID-19 could be eradicated. More likely, though, it will become endemic, meaning infections will continue at a steady number, he says, “At some point, it won’t be causing the widespread destruction we’re seeing now, but we are going to see patients with COVID for decades, most likely.” Long story short: We’re probably going to have to learn to live with COVID-19 long-term and adapt to a new normal. Here’s what that might mean for your daily life.
Masks may be here to stay
“To adapt to this new normal, the best advice I have is to get comfortable wearing a mask,” says Dr. Robert Lahita, MD, director of the Institute for Autoimmune and Rheumatic Disease at Saint Joseph Hospital and author of the upcoming book Immunity Strong. We’ve been wearing masks for more than 18 months, and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommends everyone, vaccinated or unvaccinated, wear a mask indoors. Masks are also mandated in some settings, such as when you fly. Masks should be viewed as a safety tool, like a seatbelt or bicycle helmet, suggests Dr. Gregg Miller, MD, emergency room physician and chief medical officer at Vituity. “If we enact these simple measures, we can go to work, school, restaurants, sporting events, family reunions, concerts, and other public events without concern of contracting or transmitting a lethal virus,” he says. Even years from now, Dr. Sanchez says in crowded spaces or on airplanes, you’ll likely want to wear a mask. “In many Asian countries, even prior to the pandemic, it was common to see people wear a mask in crowded areas,” he explains. “If you’re sick, please wear a mask. Hopefully, a lot of us in society will continue to be more responsible with that.”
We’ll need to continue other protective measures, too
Along with wearing masks, we’ll likely need to keep up the other protective measures we’ve gotten used to, says Dr. Jana Dickter, MD, associate clinical professor at the City of Hope Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine. Social distancing, avoiding touching your face, cleaning and disinfecting items and surfaces that are touched often, and diligent hand washing, especially after touching items in public places can help stop the spread of COVID-19, she says. These measures—and wearing masks—also guard against the flu, colds, and other illnesses.
We may need to get vaccinated every year
Getting vaccinated is the best way to protect yourself and others from COVID-19, Dr. Dickter says. If the virus becomes endemic, you may need to get vaccinated each year, just like an annual flu shot. “A combination of annual vaccines and acquired immunity over time may allow for there to be less transmission and lower numbers of people becoming seriously ill or dying from the infection,” she says. “Of course, it’s difficult to know if and when this will happen, as it will depend on how good immune protection is from vaccination and prior infection, the continued transmission of the virus, and how much the virus evolves.” The Food and Drug Administration recommends Pfizer’s COVID-19 booster shots for Americans over age 65 and anyone at risk for severe illness if they contract the virus. But, the agency hasn’t yet recommended boosters for everyone.
Herd immunity is likely achievable
Herd immunity is when a large part of a community becomes immune—either from vaccination or infection—to a disease so that it can no longer spread. Achieving herd immunity so that outbreaks aren’t as widespread and severe is possible, Miller says, but COVID-19 likely won’t disappear altogether. “Herd immunity isn’t a binary black and white state,” he says. “There are shades of gray—some communities will have more protection against COVID’s spread than others, based on their vaccination rates.” When COVID-19 affects fewer people, it also has fewer chances to mutate into new variants, Dr. Miller explains. About 80% of the population needs to be vaccinated to reach herd immunity, Lahita says. But, just under 55% of Americans have been fully vaccinated as of mid-September, according to the CDC.
The pandemic will inspire a new normal
Before the pandemic, people were often expected to go to work and school when sick. But Dr. Sanchez says that’s not something to be celebrated. “You should stay home if you’re sick and not infect everyone else,” he says. “There’s a better way of living and we can learn from this pandemic.” Hopefully, the pandemic will inspire new behaviors going forward, Dr. Miller adds. New policies for sick leave, workplaces better accommodating social distancing, and normalizing masking could help reduce infections of COVID-19 and other illnesses. “Maybe the new normal will look even better than the old normal,” he says. Before COVID-19, tens of thousands of Americans died each year from the flu, but last year’s flu season was minimal because of masking and other health safety measures. Miller says utilizing the lessons of the pandemic could prevent the spread of other illnesses. “People learn to live with new normals,” Dr. Sanchez says. “Some of the things we’re doing now because of COVID, our descendants will say it’s unthinkable we didn’t do it before the pandemic.” Next, read about what trends are expected to continue post-pandemic.
Sources
Dr. Jana Dickter, MD, associate clinical professor at the City of Hope Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of MedicineDr. Robert Lahita, MD, director of the Institute for Autoimmune and Rheumatic Disease at Saint Joseph Hospital and author of the upcoming book Immunity StrongDr. Gregg Miller, MD, emergency room physician and chief medical officer at VituityDr. Edgar Sanchez, MD, an infectious disease physician at Orlando Health Medical GroupBritish Medical Journal Global Health: We should not dismiss the possibility of eradicating COVID-19: comparisons with smallpox and polioCNBC: FDA panel recommends Pfizer’s Covid booster doses for people 65 and older after rejecting third shots for general populationCDC: COVID-19 Vaccinations in the United States CDC: When You’ve Been Fully Vaccinated
